Understanding Canada’s Other Carbon Price
Credit Pricing Dynamics under Canada’s Federal Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR)
May 6, 2026
In early April, quoted prices for credits under the CFR reached $430 per tonne of reduced carbon intensity, having climbed steeply over the last year from a nadir of $95/t in March 2025. This follows from economic fundamentals of supply and demand for credits under this regulatory regime: the price for credits must compensate the marginal supply of low-carbon fuels to meet fuel suppliers’ obligations.
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Ontario's Latest Renewable Procurement
(LT2 Window 1):
What the Results Signal for Ontario's Energy Future
April 28, 2026
The IESO released results for the first window of the Long-Term 2 (LT2) Energy procurement in early April 2026, awarding 20-year contracts to 14 projects totalling 1,315 MW of capacity and 3.02 TWh of annual energy. This was the first competitive renewable energy procurement in Ontario in over a decade.
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Alberta TIER 2024 Compliance results:
Implications for a growing EPC/Offset bank
November 3, 2025
Despite an increase in 2024 GHGs, obligations under TIER declined. The volume of new EPCs and Offsets for 2024 versus retirements mean a growing EPC/Offset bank – and continuing downward pressure on depressed prices.
Any outcomes of “Grand Bargain” negotiations between Alberta and Canada’s federal government will determine the pace and timeline for the draw-down of the presently ~60 million tonne bank of EPCs and Offsets – and, in turn, the pathway for future EPC/Offset prices.
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From the Inflation Reduction Act to the One Big Beautiful Bill:
A Sudden Shift for US Renewables
September 16, 2025
As development in the U.S. slows, Canada is in the midst of a sustained build cycle. For IPPs and capital providers with paused growth strategies south of the border, this offers a chance to stay active and continue scaling over the next several years.
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Alberta TIER’s 2024 retirements:
What does this mean for future prices?
July 8, 2025
With Alberta TIER's June 30th compliance deadline now passed, 12.5 million EPCs and Offsets were retired for 2024. This result closely aligns with our bottom-up "near-cast" of obligations across TIER-regulated facilities, and, in this post, we explain what this means for TIER's market balance and future pricing.
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Post-Election Questions for Canadian Carbon Pricing
April 30, 2025
As Mr. Carney’s party shifts from campaigning to governing after winning Monday’s election, how it navigates decarbonizing our economy is pivotal to Canadian competitiveness – now, and for the long run.
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