Foundation Economics | Foundation Economics | Intelligence for Carbon and Energy Markets

Alberta TIER’s 2025 credit retirements

Implications of declining obligations for credit bank and prices

July 9, 2026

From Alberta Carbon Registries data, we calculate that 12.7 million tonnes of EPCs and Offsets were retired to satisfy TIER-regulated emitters’ 2025 compliance obligations. Assuming all emitters satisfied 80% of their obligations with EPC/Offset retirements (the regulatory maximum for the 2025 compliance year), implied emitter obligations were 15.9 Mt in 2025 - a significant decline from 2024.

Ontario’s Latest Capacity Procurement
(LT2c Window 1)

BESS continues to outcompete new gas

June 30, 2026

In June 2026 the IESO released initial results for its Long-Term 2 capacity procurement (LT2(c-1)), awarding 20-year contracts to three battery storage (BESS) projects totalling 640 MW. LT2(c-1) tracks two global trends: BESS is displacing gas for new capacity, and project returns increasingly depend on merchant revenue that rewards flexibility over low marginal cost.

Alberta Carbon Market Reset

May 15th Canada-Alberta Implementation Agreement

May 26, 2026

The May 15 Implementation Agreement between Canada and Alberta translated the November MOU into tangible next steps and underpins confidence that industrial carbon pricing under Alberta’s TIER regime will continue. The Agreement comes after a tumultuous 18 months for the TIER market. We highlight key questions that market participants must consider for future pricing of TIER’s carbon credits (EPCs and offsets).

Understanding Canada’s Other Carbon Price

Credit Pricing Dynamics under Canada’s Federal Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR)

May 6, 2026

In early April, quoted prices for credits under the CFR reached $430 per tonne of reduced carbon intensity, having climbed steeply over the last year from a nadir of $95/t in March 2025. This follows from economic fundamentals of supply and demand for credits under this regulatory regime: the price for credits must compensate the marginal supply of low-carbon fuels to meet fuel suppliers’ obligations.

Ontario's Latest Renewable Procurement
(LT2 Window 1):

What the Results Signal for Ontario's Energy Future

April 28, 2026

The IESO released results for the first window of the Long-Term 2 (LT2) Energy procurement in early April 2026, awarding 20-year contracts to 14 projects totalling 1,315 MW of capacity and 3.02 TWh of annual energy. This was the first competitive renewable energy procurement in Ontario in over a decade.

Alberta TIER 2024 Compliance results:

Implications for a growing EPC/Offset bank

November 3, 2025

Despite an increase in 2024 GHGs, obligations under TIER declined. The volume of new EPCs and Offsets for 2024 versus retirements mean a growing EPC/Offset bank – and continuing downward pressure on depressed prices.

Any outcomes of “Grand Bargain” negotiations between Alberta and Canada’s federal government will determine the pace and timeline for the draw-down of the presently ~60 million tonne bank of EPCs and Offsets – and, in turn, the pathway for future EPC/Offset prices.

From the Inflation Reduction Act to the One Big Beautiful Bill:

A Sudden Shift for US Renewables

September 16, 2025

As development in the U.S. slows, Canada is in the midst of a sustained build cycle. For IPPs and capital providers with paused growth strategies south of the border, this offers a chance to stay active and continue scaling over the next several years.

Alberta TIER’s 2024 retirements:

What does this mean for future prices?

July 8, 2025

With Alberta TIER's June 30th compliance deadline now passed, 12.5 million EPCs and Offsets were retired for 2024. This result closely aligns with our bottom-up "near-cast" of obligations across TIER-regulated facilities, and, in this post, we explain what this means for TIER's market balance and future pricing.

Post-Election Questions for Canadian Carbon Pricing

April 30, 2025

As Mr. Carney’s party shifts from campaigning to governing after winning Monday’s election, how it navigates decarbonizing our economy is pivotal to Canadian competitiveness – now, and for the long run.